EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 33 - Down -76%submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
Month Thirty Three – Down 76%2018 Top Ten Summary for September
After a rough start to September, crypto spent the month trying in vain to claw back ground. While a few coins rebounded quite a bit from the monthly lows, most ended up finishing the month significantly down. Out of the 2018 Top Ten group, Bitcoin lost the least, down -8% in September. NEM followed it’s winning August (yes, you read that right) with the poorest performance, down -26%.
Question of the month:
Which cryptocurrency exchange won approval to create America’s first crypto bank in September?A) Binance B) Binance.us C) Kraken D) Coinbase
Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and September Winners and LosersRank of 2018 Portfolio - 50% no longer in Top Ten
A lot of shuffling in September. On the upside, Bitcoin Cash and Cardano gained one place each landing at #5 and #10 respectively. Cardano gets special mention for re-entering the Top Ten.
Heading the wrong direction were IOTA, NEM, Dash, and Stellar each falling two or three spots.
The big story though, for long time crypto watchers, was the ejection of Litecoin from the Top Ten, down five places from #7 to #12 in just one month. For some context, Litecoin’s absence from the Top Ten is a Top Ten Experiment first. It is also the first time since CoinMarketCap has tracked crypto rankings that Litecoin has not been in the Top Ten.
Drop outs: After thirty-three months of this experiment 50% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out. NEM, Litecoin, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar have been replaced by Binance Coin, Tether, BSV, LINK, and most recently, DOT.
September Winners – Although it lost -8% of its value, this month’s W goes to Bitcoin. ADA gets second place, down -15% and climbing back into the Top Ten.
September Losers – As most probably expected after an extremely out of character victory last month, NEM came back down to earth in September, bigly, down -26%. Litecoin finished right behind, down -24% and dropping out of the Top Ten.
For the overly competitive, below is a tally of the winners of the first 33 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Bitcoin still has the most monthly wins (8) and Cardano in second place with 6 monthly wins. With its poor September performance, NEM now has 7 monthly losses.
Ws and Ls - One clear winner
Every crypto has at least one monthly win and Bitcoin is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn’t lost a month yet since January 2018.
Overall update – BTC solidly in the lead, followed by ETH. Dash in the basement, LTC drops out of the Top Ten.Even though BTC took a bit of a detour on its way back to break-even point, it is still far ahead of the field, down -17% since January 2018. The initial investment of $100 thirty-three months ago is now worth about $83. Second place Ethereum is down -49% over the same time period.
At this point in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, Dash is at the bottom. It is currently worth $70.49, down from a January 1st, 2018 starting price of over $1,000. That’s a loss of -93%. The initial $100 invested in Dash 33 months ago is now worth $6.77.
The big story this month is LTC’s departure from the Top Ten, the first time since I started the experiment back in January 2018. Whether or not it will eventually fend off the new generation of coins remains to be seen, but it certainly is noteworthy to have one of the most well known and long standing cryptos drop out of the Top Ten. Consider pouring one out for Litecoin.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:The crypto market lost over $35B in September and is down -39% since January 2018. The value of the overall crypto market is near where it was in August of this year, just a few months back. As painful as the beginning of the month was, looking at a table like this helps with perspective, especially if you’re panic prone.
Bitcoin dominance:After steadily dipping for months, BitDom increased a bit in September, up to 57.5%.
For some context: since the beginning of the experiment, the range of Bitcoin dominance has been quite wide: we saw a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.
Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost -$50 this month. If I cashed out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $238, down -76% from January 2018.
September broke an encouraging upward trend, but at least the portfolio is taking a break from the -80% range. Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, for some context:
33 Monthly ROIs on Top Ten since Jan 2018
The absolute bottom was -88% back in January 2019.
So the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018 are down -76%. What about the 2019 and 2020 Top Tens? Let’s take a look:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $3,340 ($238+ $1,538 +$1,564).
That’s up about +11% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +31% last month.
Here’s a table to help visualize:
Combined ROI on $3k over 3 years - UP +11%
That’s a +11% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years.
But surely you’d do better if you went all in on one crypto, right?
Depends on your choice. Let’s take a look:
ETH for the win
Only five cryptos have started in the Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC (unless Litecoin can make a comeback by the 1st of Jan. 2021, it’s not going to make the four year club!). Knowing what we know now, which one would have been best to go all in on?
Ethereum, by a pretty good margin: the initial $3k would be up +104%, worth $6,118 today. The worst choice of a basket to put all your eggs in at this point in the experiment is XRP, down by almost one third.
Comparison to S&P 500:I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 Index fell from an all time high in August, but is currently up +26% since January 2018.
S&P since Jan. 2018
The initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would have been worth about $1260 had it been redirected to the S&P.
But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,660.
That is up +22% since January 2018, compared to a +11% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s an 11% swing in favor of the S&P 500 and breaks a two month mini-streak of wins from the Top Ten crypto portfolios.
S&P vs. Top Ten Crypto Experiments
That’s seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. two monthly victories for crypto. The largest gap so far was a 22% difference in favor of the S&P in June.
Conclusion:September was a tough month for both traditional and crypto markets. What’s next for the rest of 2020? More volatility is no doubt to come as we enter the last quarter of a truly unpredictable and exhausting year. Buckle up.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
And the Answer is…C) Kraken
According to an official announcement in September, Kraken is “the first digital asset company in U.S. history to receive a bank charter recognized under federal and state law.”
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Coca-Cola Embraces Blockchain Technology Developed By SAPAlabama-based Coca-Cola has become the latest major corporation to recognize the advantages of blockchain technology.According to a recent Business Insider report, Coca-Cola’s bottlers now rely on the blockchain solution, which was developed by German software corporation SAP to keep track of all transactions that take place within 70 franchises.
Æternity Blockchain Developers Take On Ethereum With Final HardforkThe core development team for Æternity, a next-generation, open-source blockchain for building decentralized applications, announced its LIMA hardfork on Nov 5, releasing the latest software to miners and in fact, handing over governance to the community. The third major æternity protocol upgrade this year, LIMA adds a sophisticated, improved Virtual Machine, governance, and naming system to challenge Ethereum and other blockchain platforms. Æternity is one of the most active blockchain developer communities measured by code activity. Core developers proposed hardfork, LIMA software release to miners, who will mine or not mine fork of aeternity blockchain.
Bangkok Bank To Launch Blockchain-Based L/C Service Next MonthBangkok Bank (BBL) is set to roll out a blockchain-based letter of credit (L/C) service next month and aims for the innovative financial service to increase the bank’s trade finance business.The bank will use R3’s Corda-powered Voltron platform to digitise the L/C process, said executive director Charamporn Jotikasthira.BBL is the only Thai bank among the eight founding members of Voltron, which include BNP Paribas, HSBC, ING, and Standard Chartered Bank.
Chinese Regulator Investigates Firm’s Blockchain Efforts Amid Stock SurgeAn obscure porcelain and education firm is under investigation by a top Chinese regulator after it became one of the most sought-after blockchain stocks last week.Guangdong Great Wall Group, whose stock price skyrocketed for five consecutive days last week after Chinese president XI Jinping praised blockchain technology, said it was under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The investigation comes as the government appeals for “rational” investments in Chinese blockchain and fintech firms.
BTC — BTC rose rapidly in the early hours of this morning, reaching a maximum of $9645, now falling back to around $9400. In the past 24 hours, the net outflow of BTC funds is close to US $50 million, and the outflow of market funds is significantly increased compared with the previous cycle. BTC made a tentative pull in the early morning to test the upper resistance. In terms of the 4-hour line, the overall volume is not obvious, and the follow-up strength is insufficient, and the breakthrough is not successful. The domestic market is still dominated by shocks, and may withdraw again after the failure of short-term breakthrough to prepare for the next round of offensive. The upper resistance continued to focus around $9600, while the lower support continued to focus on $9000. In terms of operation, it is suggested to control the position and wait for the right opportunity to build the position.
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Encrypted project calendar（November 5, 2019）
Nexus (NXS)： 05 November 2019 Tritium Official Release “Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the day Tritium changed Distributed Ledger. Yes, this is an official release date.”NEM (XEM)： 05 November 2019 Innovation Forum — Kyiv NEM Foundation Council Member Anton Bosenko will be speaking in the upcoming International Innovation Forum in Kyiv on November 5, 2019.TomoChain (TOMO): 05 November 2019 TomoX Testnet “Mark your calendar as TomoX testnet will be live on Tuesday, Nov 5th!”aelf (ELF): 05 November 2019 Bug Bounty Program Ends On Oct 24th, 2019 aelf’s biggest bug bounty will launch with a large reward pool. The event will run for almost 2 weeks.ICON (ICX): 05 November 2019 Seoul Meetup “We are pleased to announce that the ICON x Steem DApp SEOUL MEETUP will be held in the ICON Lounge on November 5th.”Utrust (UTK): 05 November 2019 Lisbon Meetup “We’re hosting a meetup for anyone interested in blockchain & crypto adoption! Industry leaders like Cointelegraph, BetProtocol & others…”Siacoin (SC): 05 November 2019 Zurich Meetup “Join us Tuesday, Nov 5th in Zurich for a Sia meetup with CEO David, and devs Chris and PJ at @impacthubzurich.”OKB (OKB): 05 November 2019 Simulation USDT Futures “NEW LAUNCH: The much-awaited $USDT-Margined Futures Trading will soon be available on #OKEx… Simulation launching Nov 5”
Encrypted project calendar（November 6, 2019）
STEEM/Steem: The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th.KIM/Kimcoin: Kimcoin (KIM) Bitfinex will be online at KIM on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 (UTC).Nebulas (NAS): 06 November 2019 Burn Deadline “Be sure to read this announcement & burn your $NAT by November 6th, 3:00p.m. (UTC+8, Beijing time).”Power Ledger (POWR): 06 November 2019 Book Launch ATTN Perth Power Ledger community, we will be hosting renowned economist Ross Garnaut at our WA office for the launch of his latest book…
Encrypted project calendar（November 7, 2019）
XRP (XRP)： 07 November 2019 Swell 2019 Ripple hosts Swell from November 7th — 8th in Singapore.BTC/Bitcoin: Malta The A.I. and Blockchain summit will be held in Malta from November 7th to 8th.Waves (WAVES): 07 November 2019 Joins Odyssey “#Waves is joining Odyssey… We’re kicking off on Nov. 7 at Polaris…”Komodo (KMD) and 1 other: 07 November 2019 Block Party Amsterdam Block Party Amsterdam in Amsterdam from 17:30–22:00.Horizen (ZEN): 07 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（November 8, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin: The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.IOTX/IoTeX: IoTex (IOTX) will participate in the CES Expo on November 08TOP (TOP): 08 November 2019 Mainnet Launch “So excited to announce that on November 8th, TOP Network will officially launch the mainnet…”OKB (OKB): 08 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Valencia “Meet us at our next OKEx Talks in Valencia on 8 Nov with speaker Gustavo Segovia @sepu85 who will look at the benefits of creating
Encrypted project calendar（November 9, 2019）
CENNZ/Centrality: Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.HTMLCOIN (HTML): 09 November 2019 (or earlier) Mandatory Wallet Update Mandatory Wallet Update: there will be a soft fork on our blockchain. This update adds header signature verification on block 997,655.
Encrypted project calendar（November 10, 2019）
Bibox Token (BIX): 10 November 2019 Bibox Summit “Bibox Summit 2019 — Maximizing Profit On Uptrend Season” from 1 PM — 5 PM (ITV) in Ho Chi Minh City.
Encrypted project calendar（November 11, 2019）
PAX/Paxos Standard: Paxos Standard (PAX) 2019 Singapore Financial Technology Festival will be held from November 11th to 15th, and Paxos Standard will attend the conference.Crypto.com Coin (CRO): and 3 others 11 November 2019 Capital Warm-up Party Capital Warm-up Party in Singapore.GoldCoin (GLC): 11 November 2019 Reverse Bitcoin Hardfork The GoldCoin (GLC) Team will be “Reverse Hard Forking” the Bitcoin (BTC) Blockchain…”Horizen (ZEN): 11 November 2019 (or earlier) Horizen Giveaway — Nodes Horizen Giveaway — Win Free Node Hosting! Entries before November 11th.SINOVATE (SIN): 11 November 2019 Roadmap V3 SINOVATE (SIN) Roadmap V3 will be released with new upcoming technologies and proof of concepts!
Encrypted project calendar（November 12, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin: The CoinMarketCap Global Conference will be held at the Victoria Theatre in Singapore from November 12th to 13thBinance Coin (BNB) and 7 others: 12 November 2019 CMC Global Conference “The first-ever CoinMarketCap large-scale event: A one-of-a-kind blockchain / crypto experience like you’ve never experienced before.”Aion (AION) and 17 others: 12 November 2019 The Capital The Capital conference from November 12–13 in Singapore.Loom Network (LOOM): 12 November 2019 Transfer Gateway Update “If you have a dapp that relies on the Transfer Gateway, follow the instructions below to make sure you’re prepared.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 13, 2019）
Fetch.ai (FET): 13 November 2019 Cambridge Meetup “Join us for a @Fetch_ai #Cambridge #meetup on 13 November @pantonarms1.”Binance Coin (BNB) and 5 others: 13 November 2019 Blockchain Expo N.A. “It will bring together key industries from across the globe for two days of top-level content and discussion across 5 co-located events…”OKB (OKB): 13 November 2019 Dnipro, Ukraine- Talks Join us in Dnipro as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour on 11 Nov.Centrality (CENNZ): 13 November 2019 AMA Meetup “Ask our CEO @aaronmcdnz anything in person! Join the AMA meetup on 13 November in Singapore.”OKB (OKB): 13 November 2019 OKEx Cryptotour Dnipro “OKEx Cryptour Ukraine 2019 — Dnipro” in Dnipro from 6–9 PM (EET).
Encrypted project calendar（November 14, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin: The 2019 BlockShow Asia Summit will be held at Marina Bay Sands, Singapore from November 14th to 15th.Binance Coin (BNB): and 4 others 14 November 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 at Marina Bay Sands Expo, Singapore from November 14–15.Basic Attention Token (BAT): 14 November 2019 London Privacy Meetup “If you’re in London on Nov. 14th, don’t miss our privacy meetup! The Brave research team, our CPO @johnnyryan, as well as @UoE_EFIHorizen (ZEN): 14 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.IOTA (MIOTA): 14 November 2019 Berlin Meetup From Construction to Smart City: IOTA, Maschinenraum & Thinkt Digital will explain, using concrete use cases, how to gain real value from..Dash (DASH): 14 November 2019 Q3 Summary Call “Dash Core Group Q3 2019 Summary Call — Thursday, 14 November 2019”NEO (NEO): 14 November 2019 NeoFest Singapore Meetup “Glad to have @Nicholas_Merten from DataDash as our host for #NeoFest Singapore meetup on 14th Nov!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 15, 2019）
TRON (TRX): 15 November 2019 Cross-chain Project “The #TRON cross-chain project will be available on Nov. 15th”Bluzelle (BLZ): 15 November 2019 (or earlier) CURIE Release CURIE release expected by early November 2019.Zebi (ZCO): 15 November 2019 ZEBI Token Swap Ends “… We will give 90 days to all the ERC 20 token holders to swap out their tokens into Zebi coins.”OKB (OKB): 15 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Vilnius “Join us for a meetup on 15 Nov (Fri) for our 1st ever Talks in Vilnius, Lithuania.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 16, 2019）
Bancor (BNT): and 2 others 16 November 2019 Crypto DeFiance-Singapore “Crypto DeFiance is a new global DeFi event embracing established innovators, financial market disruptors, DApp developers…”NEM (XEM): 16 November 2019 Developer’s Event “BLOCKCHAIN: Creation of Multifirma services” from 10:50 AM — 2 PM.
Encrypted project calendar（November 17, 2019）
OKB (OKB): 17 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Lagos Join us on 17 Nov for another OKEx Talks, discussing the “Life of a Crypto Trader”.
Encrypted project calendar（November 18, 2019）
Maker (MKR): 18 November 2019 MCD Launch “BIG changes to terminology are coming with the launch of MCD on Nov. 18th Say hello to Vaults, Dai, and Sai.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 19, 2019）
Lisk (LSK): 19 November 2019 Lisk.js “We are excited to announce liskjs2019 will take place on November 19th. This all day blockchain event will include…”
Encrypted project calendar（November 20, 2019）
OKB (OKB): 20 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Odessa Ukr “Join us in Odessa as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 21, 2019）
Cardano (ADA): and 2 others 21 November 2019 Meetup Netherlands (AMS) “This meetup is all about how to decentralize a blockchain, the problems and differences between Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake…”Cappasity (CAPP): 21 November 2019 Virtuality Paris 2019 “Cappasity to demonstrate its solution for the interactive shopping experience at Virtuality Paris 2019.”Horizen (ZEN): 21 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.OKB (OKB): 21 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Johannesburg “Join us the largest city of South Africa — Johannesburg where we will host our OKEx Talks on the 21st Nov.”IOST (IOST): 22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key tech.OKB (OKB): 22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 22, 2019）
IOST (IOST): 22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key techOKB (OKB): 22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 27, 2019）
OKB (OKB): 27 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Vinnytsia “Join us in Vinnytsia as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”Fetch.ai (FET): 27 November 2019 London Meetup “Join us on 27 November @primalbasehq to hear an exciting progress report as we prepare for the launch of our #mainnet”
Encrypted project calendar（November 28, 2019）
Horizen (ZEN): 28 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（November 30, 2019）
Ethos (ETHOS): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Rebranding “In November, we unveil the broker token, a dynamic utility token to power our commission-free crypto trading and broker platform, Voyager.”Digitex Futures (DGTX): 30 November 2019 Public Testnet Launch “…We can expect to see the world’s first zero-commission futures trading platform live on the Ethereum public testnet from 30th November.”Monero (XMR): 30 November 2019 Protocol Upgrade “Preliminary information thread regarding the scheduled protocol upgrade of November 30.”Chiliz (CHZ): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Fiat to CHZ Exchanges “We will add another two fiat to $CHZ exchanges in November…”Skrumble Network (SKM): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) P2P & Group Calling “P2P & Group Video Calling,” during November 2019.Aergo (AERGO): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mainnet 2.0 Upgrade Mainnet 2.0 Protocol update by end of November.Akropolis (AKRO): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.”Nash Exchange (NEX): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mobile Strategy Phase 2 “Phase 2 of our mobile strategy will be live soon with our wallet and portfolio app hitting stores in November!”
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